Cost estimation and cost risk analysis in early design stages of naval projects

Authors

  • Michael Rudíus

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25043/19098642.119

Keywords:

Cost Estimation, Cost Risk Analysis, Design and Engineering, VORGES, Risk Minimization, Budget Planning, Program Acquisition Cost, Life Cycle Cost

Abstract

During the design and engineering process for naval projects a comprehensive cost management is required. The overall aim is to ensure the financial feasibility throughout the project with a low financial risk. Cost management combines acquisition costs and in-service costs in order to obtain life cycle costs. In this context methods for cost estimation have to be adapted to the phase of the planning process of a naval vessel. This paper introduces challenges and solutions for the cost estimation in general and describes MTGÅLs cost estimation approach for conceptual and preliminary designs. Additionally the utilization of cost risk analyses in order to ensure a reliable budget planning and the identification of cost risk drivers will be described.

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Author Biography

Michael Rudíus

MTG Marinetechnik GmbH. Department of Cost Estimation Services. Hamburg, Germany

References

NEUMANN, A., ‘VORGES – A Procedural Model For Total Ship System Engineering Developed By MTG Marinetechnik’, ColombiaMar 2013, 2013.

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TECOLOTE RESEARCH, Inc., ‘NAVSEA Approach to Cost Risk Analysis’, 2009.

SCHAEFFER, R., MULEKAR, M. and J. MCCLAVE, ‘Probability and Statistics for Engineers’, 2011.

SMITH, A. and S. HU, ‘Common Errors when using Risk Simulation Tools’, ISPA/SCEA Conference, 2005.

MCKAY, M., R. BECKMANN and W. CONOVER, ‘A Comparison of Three Methods for Selecting Values of Input Variables in the Analysis of Output From a Computer Code’, Technometrics, 1979.

BOX, G., G. JENKINS and G. REINSEL, Time Series Analysis - Forecasting and Control, Wiley, 2008.

NATIONAL AERONAUTICS AND SPACE ADMINISTRATION (NASA), ‘Cost Estimating Handbook’, 2002.

INTERNATIONAL SOCIETY OF PARAMETRIC ANALYSTS (ISPA), ‘Parametric Estimating Handbook’, 2008.

NAVSEA, ‘Cost Estimating Handbook’, 2005.

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Published

2015-07-08

How to Cite

Rudíus, M. (2015). Cost estimation and cost risk analysis in early design stages of naval projects. Ciencia Y tecnología De Buques, 8(17), 31–46. https://doi.org/10.25043/19098642.119

Issue

Section

Scientific and Technological Research Articles
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