Application of the Montecarlo method for the validation of the budget of a suezmax type ship

  • José María Torres do Rego Faculty of Naval and Oceanic Engineering, Technical University of Cartagena
  • Carlos Mascaraque Ramírez Faculty of Naval and Oceanic Engineering, Technical University of Cartagena
  • Pablo Martínez López Faculty of Naval and Oceanic Engineering, Technical University of Cartagena
  • David Salvador Sanz Sánchez Faculty of Naval and Oceanic Engineering, Technical University of Cartagena

Abstract

As the name suggests, the budget for the construction of a ship, in this case a Suezmax, means to specifically pre-suppose in economic terms, the activities and movements to carry out during the construction of said ship. The importance of this essential phase of the construction process lie one hand in budgeting a competitive price in the market, but without causing economic losses for the shipyard, in order to make a profit for the company.  This study proposes the use of the Monte Carlo method to obtain a greater reliability in the valuation of the Suezmax vessel; in this case, the triangular method will be used, which starting point is based on results obtained from previous research and from which the most likely, most pessimistic and most optimistic ship budget is obtained in order to later perform a simulation. For the realization of said simulation the ship is divided into different items, that will be assigned an optimistic and pessimist percentage based on a likely budget, according to the degree of trust of the shipyard in said concept.The final scope will be the calculation of the management reserve used to rectify any unforeseen item(s) in the construction of the ship.

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Published
2019-04-08
Section
Scientific and Technological Research Articles