Application of the Montecarlo method for the validation of the budget of a suezmax type ship

Authors

  • José María Torres do Rego Faculty of Naval and Oceanic Engineering, Technical University of Cartagena
  • Carlos Mascaraque Ramírez Faculty of Naval and Oceanic Engineering, Technical University of Cartagena
  • Pablo Martínez López Faculty of Naval and Oceanic Engineering, Technical University of Cartagena
  • David Salvador Sanz Sánchez Faculty of Naval and Oceanic Engineering, Technical University of Cartagena

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.25043/19098642.177

Keywords:

Monte Carlo Method, Project Management, Budget, Shipbuilding, Suezmax

Abstract

As the name suggests, the budget for the construction of a ship, in this case a Suezmax, means to specifically pre-suppose in economic terms, the activities and movements to carry out during the construction of said ship. The importance of this essential phase of the construction process lie one hand in budgeting a competitive price in the market, but without causing economic losses for the shipyard, in order to make a profit for the company.  This study proposes the use of the Monte Carlo method to obtain a greater reliability in the valuation of the Suezmax vessel; in this case, the triangular method will be used, which starting point is based on results obtained from previous research and from which the most likely, most pessimistic and most optimistic ship budget is obtained in order to later perform a simulation. 

For the realization of said simulation the ship is divided into different items, that will be assigned an optimistic and pessimist percentage based on a likely budget, according to the degree of trust of the shipyard in said concept.

The final scope will be the calculation of the management reserve used to rectify any unforeseen item(s) in the construction of the ship.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

A Guide of the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK Guide). VI Edition. 2018.

MASCARAQUE-RAMÍREZ C. PARA- GONZÁLEZ, L. Madrid, A. Tools for the improvement of project management: Study of the construction of an ocean patrol type vessel. 2016.

ALBARIÑO-CASTRO, R. AZPIROZ AZPIROZ, J. MEIZOSO FERNÁNDEZ, M. Basic project of the merchant ship. 1997.

RODRÍGUEZ-ARAGÓN, L. J. Simulación, Método de Montecarlo. 2011.

RENÉ VAN DORP, J. KOTZ S. A novel extension of the triangular distribution and its parameter estimation. 2001.

US NAVY. Naval ships Technical Manual. 2013.

AHMED. M SALEM. Use of Mount Carlo Simulation to assess uncertainties in fire consequence calculation. 2016.

HERMARIJ, J. "Better practices of Project Management based on IPMA competences". 2013.

Downloads

Published

2019-04-08

How to Cite

Torres do Rego, J. M., Mascaraque Ramírez C., Martínez López P., & Sanz Sánchez D. S. (2019). Application of the Montecarlo method for the validation of the budget of a suezmax type ship. Ciencia Y tecnología De Buques, 12(24), 33–38. https://doi.org/10.25043/19098642.177

Issue

Section

Scientific and Technological Research Articles
QR Code

Some similar items: